Forum Predictions

a.k.a. The Dung Beetle Forecast

 

Sep 28th - 30th

Comments

POW_hungry
3/10/16 - 11:34am
Vermillion: For those who were wondering about a name for this monster, 'Donald'
Yeah, all hot air up until this point.;)
Claude Cat
3/10/16 - 10:35am
LOL
Vermillion
3/10/16 - 10:23am
For those who were wondering about a name for this monster, 'Donald'
30/9/16 - 12:26pm
30mm in the gauge since it turned to snow and still 30cm to fall at Perivail before Sunday, according to yr.no.
POW_hungry
30/9/16 - 8:40am
jungfrau: Is it just me or does tomorrow look like rain below 1800?
FL around 1800m so snow down to 1600/1700m IMO.
30/9/16 - 6:52am
Is it just me or does tomorrow look like rain below 1800?
29/9/16 - 5:14pm
neck_deep: Any revised thoughts on the road conditions/safety for this arvo. Trying to decide between Hotham and Thredbo. Still a silly idea to aim for alpine way up to Thredbo?
as previously suggested - a chainsaw might prove usefull , might add a shovel as well. Snowfall was never an issue for this weekend , treefall and landslip are the issues on the Alpine Way especially around the numerous cuttings along the way. That said so far only 20mm in the rainbucket and wind not especially strong , yet , until you get up high. Drove the road today with no problems.
SnowBound
29/9/16 - 5:03pm
Claude Cat: It's still sucking a far bit of moisture down from the North.
^^ THAT my friends is one of the most beautiful satellite pics I've seen of Australia. (unless you're caught in it)
Majikthise
29/9/16 - 4:50pm
Still can't sneeze at those predicted cumulative totals for the death throws of September
Claude Cat
29/9/16 - 4:18pm
Interesting that yr.no did a 12:45pm update. Wondering if they are going 6 hourly now? (normal updates are 6am / 6pm AEST)
telecrag
29/9/16 - 2:32pm
Claude Cat: It's still sucking a far bit of moisture down from the North.
Quoted to double like, look at that sucker!
Claude Cat
29/9/16 - 2:28pm
It's still sucking a far bit of moisture down from the North.
POW_hungry
29/9/16 - 2:14pm
IMO with the Northerly trajectory of the active core we're seeing quite a lot shadowing from the Flinders (SA) and drying through Western Riverina (NSW). I don't see anything to suggest 2 foot of snow out of this now - to me that was our best case scenario if it made landfall through Mount Gambier/William corridor. I think 25-35cm is our best case scenario now IMO.
neck_deep
29/9/16 - 1:41pm
mick chopps: impatient.
I'll hold you to it. ha ha
mick chopps
29/9/16 - 1:38pm
neck_deep: Is this thing fizzing for the snow fields or am i being impatient. Tassie is coping the wrap around and the east coast is being pumped but the alps are missing it for the time being.
impatient.
PiedPiper
29/9/16 - 1:34pm
neck_deep: Is this thing fizzing for the snow fields or am i being impatient. Tassie is coping the wrap around and the east coast is being pumped but the alps are missing it for the time being.
Dare i say the familiar story of NSw will still do well, Vic get skunked - again. Anyone care to predict the open/closed status of the harrietville road to hotham tonight around 11pm? I'm happy to drive in poor conditions, but i dont want to arrive and discover it's closed. Going via omea is gonna make it so long as to not make it worthy...
neck_deep
29/9/16 - 1:27pm
Is this thing fizzing for the snow fields or am i being impatient. Tassie is coping the wrap around and the east coast is being pumped but the alps are missing it for the time being.
Chondro
29/9/16 - 11:01am
Eye seems to be coming straight for us in mildura. We had an amazing light show last night pretty windy now
The Plowking
29/9/16 - 10:39am
Sandy: Wow, just saw this!! Currently 973hPa. Probably the lowest I've ever seen in that location. It would be better if the centre was/will be located slightly further south, in Bass Straight rather than western Vic. Also, it seems to have already peaked in SA. If it was a month earlier, I'd be saying 50-60cm+
Yep, hook to far north. Bizarro
Sandy
29/9/16 - 10:34am
FourSquare04: would love to hear your "Predictions" on this upcoming system(s) Pressure looks VERY low over the alps (Sub 980s), got to be a good thing?
Wow, just saw this!! Currently 973hPa. Probably the lowest I've ever seen in that location. It would be better if the centre was/will be located slightly further south, in Bass Straight rather than western Vic. Also, it seems to have already peaked in SA. If it was a month earlier, I'd be saying 50-60cm+

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4:30pm - 20 Jun 2016
The Dung Beetle says..

2:30pm - 19 Jun 2016

-- Snow showers Tuesday night potentially up to 20cm
-- Thu/Friday seeing 30-70cm snow across the main ranges down to 1500m, maybe lower.
-- Possibility of Baw Baw catching some snow from this system.

The Dung Beetle separates the wheat from the chaff by stripping back the technical talk and summarising the forum consensus

The community in our weather forum is very active with both amateur and experienced observers as well as a handful of qualified meterologists. Our weather forum has been operating continuously since 1998 and many members have been involved for over fifteen years.

During winter, each significant weather system that rolls across Australia is followed with a dedicated 'Prediction' thread as well as a seperate 'Observations' thread. Sometimes the conversation can get a bit technical, however the 'Wisdom of the Crowd' usually results in quite accurate snowfall predictions.

This page tracks the 20 most recent posts from the current Prediction thread to make it easier for casual visitors to view the latest predictions. If you have an interest in reading the weather charts then feel free to sign up and get involved, new members are always welcome.

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